Back in 1926, Wharton School of Business economist George Taylor made a striking observation: when the economy was good, women raised their hemlines so they could show off their silk stockings. When times got rough, women would lower the length of their skirts to hide that they could no longer afford new hosiery. And thus came the birth of the Hemline Index.
While the theory is still up for debate 86 years later — some argue that this line of thinking no longer holds true, but a 2010 study says it’s accurate though there’s a lag time — we decided to take a look at 20 fall 2012 collections (including Erdem, Donna Karan, Louis Vuitton, Mary Katrantzou, and Giorgio Armani) to see what these hemlines might say about the state of the economy in upcoming months. According to our informal survey, fall’s hemlines indicate, not surprisingly, that the global economy is hurting: only 1.5 percent of the 874 ensembles we looked at were super short (we’re talking Daisy Duke length), while 1.5 percent of the hemlines were at miniskirt level. About 42 percent of the outfits’ hemlines fell right around the knee, whereas 45.7 percent fell just below the knee. So if Taylor’s theory holds true, the outlook for the economy is grim.
But that might not be the case, with recent news showing signs of hope. A March 13 Reuters report reads, “The S&P 500 hit a four-year high on Tuesday and the dollar touched an 11-month peak versus the yen.” The AP says that unemployment fell in 45 states last January. “European shares hit a seven-and-a-half-month high,” reports another Reuters article.
When looking at the actual designs for fall 2012, themes revealed a mixed bag. In the United States, Steven Alan’s Depression-era collection and Cynthia Rowley’s blue-collar homage pointed to the recent Great Recession. Milan was a different story, with Dolce & Gabbana going to the decadent baroque era and to short lengths, despite Italy’s current recession. Rich girls played muses all around, from Marc Jacobs’s lavish take on the 19th-century bourgeoisie for Louis Vuitton, to Erdem’s interpretation of the late heiress Peggy Guggenheim.
Hemlines may not be high for fall, but the markets are rising. If the economy continues to recover, then Taylor’s theory isn’t an exact indicator of the times.
Perhaps the true sign of fall 2012’s reflection of the economy will come later this year, when the designs hit store racks. Will retail spending increase with consumers flocking to shops to buy new items for the season? And even more tellingly, which hemlines will be most popular?